Qatar's role in supporting political Islamic movements and its impact on relations with the States of the region

Abstract

Qatar’s foreign policy in the 21st century is characterized by active support for transnational Islamic movements, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, which enabled the small state to strengthen its regional influence after the Arab Spring of 2011. This strategy, which included financial and media assistance, led to conflict with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, culminating in the 2017-2021 blockade. The relevance of this study stems from the need to assess the impact of such a policy on regional stability and the economy. The goal is to analyze correlations between the support of Islamists and the escalation of tensions, as well as the economic consequences. The research employs an interdisciplinary approach, combining neorealism and constructivism. The empirical basis includes IMF and World Bank reports, Chatham House publications, and a content analysis of Al Jazeera. A composite index of diplomatic tension (from 0 to 10) has been developed. Pearson correlation and trade turnover time series analysis in SPSS 28.0 were applied, covering the period 2011-2024. The results show peaks of financial support in 2013 (up to $4.21 billion for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt), correlating with the rise of the tension index to 9.34 in 2017. The correlation between media coverage and instability reaches 0.93 in Libya. Trade with the UAE and Saudi Arabia dropped by 92-93% in 2018, but partially recovered by 2023, with trade with Turkey increasing by 206,72%. The discussion confirms that Qatar’s policy deepened the ideological rift within the GCC, caused economic losses, but stimulated diversification. The correlation (r ≈ 0.85) between funding and tension indicates a causal relationship. The conclusions emphasize the fragility of the postcrisis balance and the need to rethink regional security.