Promising directions of transformational changes in the regional consumer market in the context of the digitalization of the economy

Abstract

Retail turnover in the Russian Federation grew by 44,2% in nominal terms over 2022-2025 while the physical volume of sales increased by 18,7%, whereas the share of the online channel rose from 11,6% to 18,8% over the same period. The divergence of growth rates raises the question of how the channel shift alters the parameters of the regional consumer market, whose boundaries are traditionally defined through the territorial closure of commodity circulation. The aim of the study is a quantitative assessment of the channel shift at the regional level and the identification of transformation directions supported by resource dynamics up to 2030. The calculations employ the index method with isolation of the implicit turnover deflator, chain substitutions within a two-factor model «number of orders – average order value», logistic approximation of the online penetration trajectory and scenario modelling at three saturation levels; the data comprise series of Rosstat, Sverdlovskstat, the Bank of Russia and the Association of Internet Trade Companies for 2021-2025 and the first half of 2026. Online penetration in Sverdlovsk Oblast increased from 14,96% to 17,89%, the regional lag behind the national level narrowed from 1,24 to 0,91 percentage points, and the contribution of the online channel to the annual increment of regional turnover reached 45,8% while its share in turnover remained below 18%. Factor decomposition attributed 115,5% of the online segment increment to the number of orders and minus 15,5% to the average order value, with the real value of an average purchase declining by approximately 7,6%. The scenario calculation yields penetration between 31,07% and 34,04% by 2030 within a corridor of 2,97 percentage points. Convergence of regions in channel penetration is accompanied by divergence on the supply side: the number of active sellers fell by 2% while turnover per seller grew 1.34 times. The stability of the regional share in national turnover within the 2,93-2,98% corridor results from the mutual offsetting of these two movements rather than from the stability of the market itself.