Assessment of the effectiveness of regional support measures for sports federations and clubs in highly competitive conditions in Moscow and the Moscow Region

Abstract

The study evaluates the effectiveness of regional support measures for sports federations and clubs under the intensified competition of Moscow and the Moscow Region and the related gravitational outflow of personnel. The goal is to identify which financial and non-financial instruments provide the greatest return under limited resources and varying regional distance from the metropolitan agglomeration. The novelty lies in combining an econometric assessment of budgetary profitability with expertise in management practices for retaining athletes and coaches, which makes it possible to shift from measuring costs to measuring outcomes and sustainability over a multi-year horizon. Materials and methods include an analysis of 2019-2023 data: per capita sports budget funding, representation on national teams, the share of extra-budgetary co-financing, and an infrastructure provision index. Correlation and regression models were applied, along with calculating conditional return on investment and normalizing indicators per capita. The qualitative block is based on 35 semi-structured interviews with heads of federations, clubs, and relevant authorities from 12 regions, supplemented by content analysis of regional programs. Comparative territorial stratification accounted for three distance belts from Moscow to capture the gradient of competitive pressure. The results show a low direct correlation between the volume of budget allocations and the number of national team athletes, while the share of private co-financing and the quality of management practices emerge as significant predictors. Regions reallocating funds toward mass and youth sports receive higher sustainability scores than flagship club models. Comprehensive non-financial packages (housing, education, post-career guarantees) are associated with higher retention rates among young athletes and coaches. Geography is critical: regions bordering the Moscow Region record the highest outflow and the lowest conditional return on investments, even at comparable levels of support. The discussion emphasizes that the structure and targeting of expenditures matter more than gross volume. The recommendations include shifting focus from direct financial competition with metropolitan clubs to creating an attractive social environment, developing mass sports and targeted youth programs, as well as encouraging private co-financing and partnerships. For regions in the first belt, specialized retention programs and adaptive strategies that take into account increased competitive pressure are justified. The practical significance lies in transitioning to results-based management and designing portfolios of measures with proven profitability and sustainability.