Assessment and prospects for the development of entrepreneurial structures in the agricultural sector of the Russian economy

Abstract

The agricultural sector of Russia is undergoing a structural transformation in which entrepreneurial structures are becoming key agents of growth and carriers of risks. The purpose of the study is to provide an integrated assessment of the state, dynamics, and prospects of agricultural entrepreneurship, identifying structural shifts, efficiency factors, and the role of government support. The scientific novelty lies in the triangulation of macro-statistics, micro-financial indicators, and expert evaluations within a unified IMRAD format, with an emphasis on institutional and technological determinants of development. The materials include official data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Agriculture, industry reports, and specialized studies for 2020-2023. Methods: time series analysis, structural-comparative and grouping analysis, elements of correlation-regression modeling to identify links between support, investments, and profitability, as well as expert evaluations for qualitative verification of results. The study addressed production shares of farm categories, financial results of agricultural organizations, the structure of government support, and investments in fixed capital, including their distribution across technological areas and government policy priorities. The following results were obtained. Production concentration among large agricultural organizations is increasing, while the share of household farms is declining; the farming sector is moderately expanding and strengthening niche specialization. Financially, revenue growth is observed alongside a faster increase in production costs and a steady decline in profit margins, reaching 14,4% in 2023. The volume of state support is growing and shifting toward concessional lending, while the unified subsidy is decreasing in relative terms. Investments in fixed capital are rising, with a predominance of machinery purchases and digital solutions; the correlation between concessional lending and investments is high, indicating a strong stimulating effect. Risks of infrastructural bottlenecks in storage and primary processing were identified. The discussion highlights the dual nature of the trajectory: technological re-equipment and scaling coexist with margin pressures, budget dependence, and social imbalances. A rebalancing of instruments is recommended in favor of cooperation, storage infrastructure, and deep processing, the development of breeding and digital technologies, and targeting support based on results rather than mere provision, with a prioritization of measurable SLOs. For businesses, cooperative models, sustainable financing, and risk management-including crop insurance and hedging are priorities. Research prospects include longitudinal and causal evaluations of the effects of policy measures, market conditions, regional factors, and demand seasonality.