Analysis of trade cooperation between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” based on a stochastic frontier gravity model

Abstract

In the context of the transformation of the global order and the rethinking of the role of the Belt and Road Initiative, this study aims to assess the dynamics and efficiency of China’s trade cooperation with 60 participating countries during 2013–2021, in order to quantitatively determine the gap between the potentially possible and the actually realized levels of trade, interpreting it as a “trade inefficiency” of a humanitarian nature. Methodologically, a stochastic frontier gravity model is applied, allowing for the separation of random error from systematic inefficiency. The explanatory variables include GDP, population, geographic distance, border adjacency, common language, historical ties, institutional quality, and political stability. The empirical base is constructed from panel data (World Bank, IMF, PRC customs statistics) and supplemented with qualitative analysis of official documents, expert reports, media discourse, and case studies. The results show that alongside economic determinants, key influences on persistent deviations from the “frontier” are cultural distance, a deficit of institutional trust, negative informational narratives, and substantive historical memory. Countries with positive interaction experience and institutional compatibility exhibit lower inefficiency, whereas the perception of infrastructure projects through the lens of a “debt trap” strengthens informal barriers. Case studies confirm that the tension between the economic, political, and cultural-civilizational levels of interaction creates hidden constraints not visible in aggregate macro indicators. The practical implications are that improving trade efficiency within the Belt and Road framework requires not only investments and agreements but also targeted work on humanitarian factors: ensuring institutional transparency and predictability, developing tools for cultural mediation, and implementing well-calibrated communication strategies. The proposed model serves as a diagnostic tool for targeting barriers and monitoring progress, while the synthesis of stochastic modeling and humanitarian interpretation expands the explanatory potential of gravity approaches and brings closer the realization of the goals of a “Community of Shared Future for Mankind.”