Automated management of petroleum products logistics and its impact on spill and pollution risks in river and marine transportation in environmentally valuable regions

Abstract

The study quantitatively assesses the impact of automated petroleum logistics management systems on reducing spill and pollution risks during river and marine transportation in environmentally valuable regions, addressing the challenges of increasing transport volumes, weather volatility, and limitations of traditional dispatching practices. The goal is to determine the scale and mechanisms of safety and operational efficiency effects compared to manual management. The empirical base includes more than 35,000 voyages from 2014–2024 across 14 companies (5 of which have implemented integrated automated control systems), combining operational logs, supervision reports, and investigation materials. A comparative analysis of incident frequency per 1,000 voyages using the t-test, correlation-regression modeling of risk factors (hydrometeorological conditions, vessel type, qualification), economic evaluation of direct and indirect losses, and stochastic simulation modeling of transport corridors in AnyLogic were applied. Statistically significant effects were obtained: the overall incident frequency decreased from 2.648 to 0.515 (by 5.14 times), the spill event frequency — from 0.772 to 0.114 (by 6.77 times), and the average spill volume — from 5.85 to 1.15 m³ (by 5.08 times), leading to a multiple reduction in direct damage. Weather-related risks are reduced by more than half (for example, with wind >15 m/s the incident probability decreases by ~55%, in fog — by ~58%, in complex ice conditions — by ~56%) due to proactive route planning, integration of satellite and ice data, AIS, ECDIS, and SAR systems. Simultaneously, key KPIs improve: ETA accuracy increases from 87.4% to 98.6% (+12.81%), specific fuel consumption decreases by 12.43%, and fleet utilization rate increases by 13.25%, confirming the economic feasibility of automation in addition to environmental benefits. The discussion emphasizes that the effect is driven by the synergy of automated routing, predictive diagnostics, and decision support, shifting management from a reactive to a proactive paradigm. Recommendations include standardizing automated control systems for hazardous cargo, establishing licensing requirements for environmentally sensitive waters, and further integrating AI/ML and data exchange protocols for interagency coordination.