Psychological foundations of forming investigative versions and planning fraud investigation under conditions of informational uncertainty

Abstract

The article reveals psychological mechanisms of forming investigative versions and constructing a fraud investigation plan in a situation of persistent informational uncertainty caused by the latency and intellectual-reflexive nature of this type of crime. Fraudulent schemes are described as a form of “intellectual duel,” in which the offender preemptively constructs false markers and manipulates the investigation’s expectations, thereby increasing the risk of cognitive traps for the law enforcer. It is shown that under data scarcity, the investigator naturally resorts to heuristics (representativeness, anchoring), while the pursuit of a quick coherent picture intensifies confirmation bias and leads to premature fixation on one hypothesis, with procedurally significant consequences for qualification and proof of intent. The necessity of multivariant retention of competing versions, regular reflexive re-evaluation of initial assumptions, and organizational criticism procedures that reduce individual and group distortions is substantiated. Separately analyzed are changes in the cognitive profile of fraud investigation in cyberfraud, where the version relies on digital traces and understanding of social engineering mechanisms and victim behavior, and success is determined by psychological resilience to uncertainty and flexibility of probabilistic planning.