Transformation of the spatial structure and morphology of the regional consumer goods market under the digitalisation of the economy

Abstract

The distance selling channel in Russia has grown to 11,5 trillion roubles and relies on a network of 231,1 thousand pick-up points, while the statutory assessment of the regional consumer market is still built on square metres of fixed retail facilities. The resulting gap between the actual geometry of goods movement and the way it is measured remains unresolved: some studies record a levelling of territorial differences driven by digitalisation, others a rising concentration of turnover. The purpose of the paper is to measure quantitatively the shift in the spatial structure and morphology of the regional consumer goods market that occurs as part of retail turnover moves into the distance channel. The calculation is performed on the author's model of an industrial-type constituent entity of the Russian Federation with a population of 4,29 million people and 68 municipalities grouped into three spatial belts; the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, the Gini coefficient, the Theil index with decomposition into between-belt and within-belt components, the chain substitution method and scenario modelling are applied. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index of turnover rose from 1534,6 to 1650,8, the Gini coefficient from 0,160 to 0,170, the Theil index from 0,0398 to 0,0455, and the between-belt component increased its contribution from 66,7 to 71,0%. At the same time the concentration of the order pick-up network declined: the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of pick-up points fell from 4787,2 to 3619,3, and the population-weighted distance to the nearest pick-up facility contracted from 4,61 to 1,44 km. Factor decomposition of the 61,81 thousand rouble growth in per capita distance channel turnover yielded a contribution of order frequency of 109,66 thousand roubles against a negative contribution of the average receipt of -65.90 thousand roubles. The divergence of the two trajectories means that digitalisation separates the availability of goods from the localisation of revenue: physical availability is levelling out across the region, whereas the value result is drawn towards the agglomeration core, and market assessment through retail space provision ceases to describe its actual spatial organisation.