Application of unmanned technologies in the development of offshore fields and their role in reducing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems while maintaining comparable production efficiency

Abstract

The study focuses on a comparative assessment of unmanned technologies for developing offshore fields and traditional ice-resistant platforms in terms of production efficiency, environmental impact, and industrial safety, considering the growing share of projects in Arctic and subarctic waters and the high sensitivity of marine ecosystems to anthropogenic effects. The goal is to quantitatively demonstrate whether comparable production efficiency can be achieved while radically reducing environmental impact and accident risks. Materials and methods include a systemic analysis of 15 projects from 2000–2023, environmental impact assessments and feasibility studies, stochastic simulation modeling of two scenarios — a traditional ice-resistant platform (IRP) and an unmanned subsea production complex (SPC) — in MATLAB/Simulink, evaluation according to the "production–ecology–risks–economics" framework, use of the weighted coefficients method for integrating heterogeneous effects, fault tree analysis to assess the probability of major spills, as well as correlation–regression and variance analyses to verify the significance of differences. Results show that with a minor reduction in average daily oil and gas production by 4–5%, the SPC demonstrates higher process stability (operability coefficient 0.96 versus 0.91) and a 23.76% reduction in unit cost through the elimination of personnel life-support expenses and energy optimization. Environmental effects are systemic: drilling waste discharge volume decreases by 80.0%, industrial wastewater by 87.83%, noise levels by 40.91%, and direct carbon footprint by 69.01%, achieved through closed-loop systems, elimination of flaring, and minimizing vessel activity in the production zone. Safety improves significantly: human-factor incidents decrease by 98.41%, the integral probability of a major spill more than 1000 t by 85.71%, and average response time shortens from 45.5 to 5.2 minutes due to a distributed sensor network and automatic localization protocols. Economically, the SPC has higher CAPEX +30,05% but dramatically lower OPEX −73.32% , ensuring a 35.68% increase in NPV and a 12.77% reduction in payback period; sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of this advantage down to a price scenario of 40–45 USD/barrel. The discussion identifies key effect drivers (human factor elimination, subsea placement, energy efficiency) and limitations (communication, fault tolerance, regulatory framework), as well as outlines further development through AI integration for predictive maintenance and standardization of communication infrastructure. Conclusion: unmanned technologies shape a strategically sustainable paradigm for offshore development, combining comparable productivity with multiple reductions in environmental and accident risks and increased investment appeal.